Wraith Handicaps the Oscars

Best Picture:
And the Winner is…Brokeback Mountain: This should be obvious to anyone who is not brain damaged or incredibly homophobic. That last sentence was redundant on purpose.

No other movie has been as talked about, as critically acclaimed or caused more of a sensation. Outside of Philip Seymour Hoffman’s performance, not much has been lauded about Capote, Munich might have had a better chance if it had tried harder to please the Jews who run Hollywood, and then of course there is the fact the Crash is overrated and shouldn’t have gotten nominated to begin with.  

Best Actor
And the Winner is…Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote: The Oscars love portrayals of real people, and the harder to mimic the better, which makes this a three way race between Hoffman’s Capote, Joaquin Phoenix’s Johnny Cash in Walk the Line and David Stratharin’s Edward R. Morrow in Goodnight and Good Luck. I think this is Hoffman’s year. He’s been putting in good work for years and he carries this film. Heath Ledger is way too young and way too pretty to pull an upset even with the Brokeback juggernaught. Terrence Howard’s reward is that now, white people know who Terrence Howard is.  

Best Actress
And the Winner is… Felicity Huffman for Transamerica: the third in a series of no brainer predictions. Hot button issue? Check. Playing someone of the opposite gender? Check. Radical change in appearance? Check. Complete departure from actress’s previous work? Check. Maybe without the success of Desperate Housewives to serve as a counter balance, voters wouldn’t appreciate Huffman’s range and she would get type cast and have to play male to female transsexuals for the rest of her career. But, instead, she gets a hit TV series and an Oscar. Besides, they already gave Judy Dench her Oscar for Shakespeare in Love, despite the fact that she was only in it five minutes longer than you were. Nobody saw North Country and Charlize Theron just won for Monster and I don’t think they wanna Jodie Fosterize her just yet. Keira Knightenly is too young and too pretty. So is the only person who could pull an upset, Reese Witherspoon. Besides, Witherspoon gets 15 million a picture since Legally Blonde, so fuck her.

Best Supporting Actor
And the winner is…George Clooney for Syriana. This was a tough one. Jake Gyllenhaal id the only real acting contender in the favorite for best picture, Paul Giamatti has been robbed twice for American Splendor and Sideways, but there ain’t much buzz around Cinderella Man. I think Clooney and Giamatti are at even money, but I pick Clooney because he gained 35 pounds for his role and permanently injured his back. Talk about taking one for the team; Rober DeNiro, eat your heart out. Plus he’s nominated in three categories fro two different movies. And he won’t get best director and he’ll probably loose best screenplay to a movie that he himself produced.

Who would I like to see win, William Hurt for a History of Violence.  

Best Supporting Actress
And the winner is…Catherine Keener for Capote. Better odds makers than me have had their pants pulled down to their ankles predicting this category. The theory is that there are so many good performances in by supporting actresses that the smart vote gets split and the crazy vote dominates. Hence, Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinnie. Of course there’s also the best supporting actress curse. If you win best Actor or Best Actress, your fee goes up and you start getting better scripts. If you win Best Supporting Actress and you’re not already a big star, it basically means you get a couple years worth of low budgets independent and direct to video movies before you drop off the face of the earth. However, Keener was great in Capote and she got robbed for Being John Malkovich. She’s also the person I want to win.  Frances McDormand has already won; Rachel Weisz is too young and too pretty, as is Michelle Williams. If Amy Adams wins for June Bug, I’ll eat my right ear.

Best Director …Ang Lee for Broke Back Mountain

Best Original Screenplay…Steven Gaghan for Syrianna

This is a tough one. Gaghan just one for traffic and a lot of people found Syrianna confusing. Crash could pull an upset, but didn’t Haggis just win for Million Dollar Baby?

Best Adapted Screenplay…Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for Brokeback Mountain
Another no brainer, heat on the movie not withstanding, just adapting an 11 page story to a feature film is pretty freaking cool in itself. However, I would love to see John Olsen get it for A History of Violence since it got robbed in so many other categories. It would also be fun to see Munich win, since Tony Kushner has been given sole credit for the screenplay everywhere but in the films opening credits, it will be interesting to see him share the podium with fellow nominee Eric Roth.  

And finally…The Wraith Awards for most overlooked work of the year.

A Wraith award goes to director David Cronenberg, Viggo Mortensen and Maria Bello for A History of Violence. The extremely overrated Crash is the only movie in the Best Picture or Best Director categories that is not a period piece. I firmly believe that if Cronenberg had set A History of Violence in the old west (and maybe changed the name to The Unforgiven) it would have gotten nominations in most of the major categories.

A Wraith award also goes to Ludacris for Hustle and Flow. Now, with the exception of Mos Def and Queen Latifa, I’m as skeptical of rappers in movies as the next guy, but Luda freaked it in Hustle and Flow. Here’s a movie that builds to a climax of a conversation between two men. If one half of the conversation falls flat, the movie falls apart. But Luda held his own going toe to toe with the Oscar nominated Terrance Howard. Between Crash and Hustle and Flow, Ludacris should have a clause in his contract that until he gets his Oscar nomination, Terrence Howard has to whup his ass in every movie that he does.